Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

Rapid Response Missions have returned to central Unity and humanitarian assistance is being delivered.

Reason for Concern

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Current Observations

Conflict in and around Al Hudaydah City has escalated during the past two weeks, following international calls for an end to the conflict.

Reason for Concern

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

Current Observations

According to IOM, 3,110 arrivals and 856 departures have been counted between November 5 and 11 in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states.

Reason for Concern

Drought negatively affected 2017/2018 rainfed wheat yields and pastoral conditions. Furthermore, prolonged conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods and lead to displacement.  

Current Observations

The security situation in Ghazni has improved, although an estimated 500-600 families remain displaced.   

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities.

Current Observations

The Ebola outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri provinces that has killed 241 people since August 2018, is set to become the second largest in the country’s history.

Reason for Concern

Consecutive years of below-average rainfall in the South have reduced agricultural production and household incomes.

Current Observations

Poor rainfall in the far south and southwest during the 2017/2018 rainy season led to below-average harvests and in some cases complete failure. 

Reason for Concern

The 2018 Deyr/short rains season is well below average across much of the region. Although the 2018 Gu/Genna/long rains season was one of the wettest on record, many pastoralists are still recovering from the effects of the 2016/2017 drought.

Current Observations

Seasonal rainfall performance from October to December is significantly below average, leading to crop production shortfalls and accelerated pasture and water depletion.

Reason for Concern

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Current Observations

Poorly distributed rainfall through mid-November and anomalously high temperatures has resulted in abnormal dryness for the start of season.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
South Sudan

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Rapid Response Missions have returned to central Unity and humanitarian assistance is being delivered.

Yemen

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Conflict in and around Al Hudaydah City has escalated during the past two weeks, following international calls for an end to the conflict.

Nigeria

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

According to IOM, 3,110 arrivals and 856 departures have been counted between November 5 and 11 in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states.

Afghanistan

Drought negatively affected 2017/2018 rainfed wheat yields and pastoral conditions. Furthermore, prolonged conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods and lead to displacement.  

The security situation in Ghazni has improved, although an estimated 500-600 families remain displaced.   

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
DRC

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities.

The Ebola outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri provinces that has killed 241 people since August 2018, is set to become the second largest in the country’s history.

Madagascar

Consecutive years of below-average rainfall in the South have reduced agricultural production and household incomes.

Poor rainfall in the far south and southwest during the 2017/2018 rainy season led to below-average harvests and in some cases complete failure. 

Horn of Africa

The 2018 Deyr/short rains season is well below average across much of the region. Although the 2018 Gu/Genna/long rains season was one of the wettest on record, many pastoralists are still recovering from the effects of the 2016/2017 drought.

Seasonal rainfall performance from October to December is significantly below average, leading to crop production shortfalls and accelerated pasture and water depletion.

Southern Africa

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Poorly distributed rainfall through mid-November and anomalously high temperatures has resulted in abnormal dryness for the start of season.

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Peak needs 2018

FEWS NET Data Center link

Scenario development video

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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