Areas of Highest Concern

Motivo de preocupação

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

The exchange rate on the parallel market stands around 250 SSP/USD, a depreciation from late last year but appreciation from early 2018.

Motivo de preocupação

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Current Observations

In mid-February, Hadi and Houthi representatives agreed to a first phase of redeployment of forces from areas near the major Red Sea ports, which could begin in late February.

Motivo de preocupação

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

Current Observations

According to the DTM, between March 18 and 31, nearly 10 000 movements were recorded, with a majority of which were arrivals in Borno and Adamawa states. 

Motivo de preocupação

Drought negatively affected 2017/2018 rainfed wheat yields and pastoral conditions. Furthermore, prolonged conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods and lead to displacement.  

Current Observations

In Kunar and Nangarhar provinces, conflict between non-state actors in late March displaced over 21,000 people and led to the loss of life. 

Other Areas of Concern

Motivo de preocupação

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities.

Current Observations

The number of confirmed Ebola cases and deaths in North Kivu is rising, which in combination with conflict is limiting household access to livelihoods and markets. 

Motivo de preocupação

Consecutive years of below-average rainfall in the South have reduced agricultural production and household incomes.

Current Observations

The 2018/19 rainy season has been average to above-average in the south, but limited seed availability may lead to another year of below-average crop production.   

Motivo de preocupação

The 2018 Deyr/short rains season was well below average across much of the region. Although the 2018 Gu/Genna/long rains season was one of the wettest on record, many pastoralists are still recovering from the effects of the 2016/2017 drought.

Current Observations

Siginificantly below-average rainfall since March is contributing to rapid deterioration in pasture and water availability as well as poor cropping conditions across the Horn. 

Motivo de preocupação

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Current Observations

Preliminary analysis suggests cumulative rainfall totals in southwestern and central areas of the region are the lowest on record.  

Areas of Highest Concern

País ou região Motivo de preocupação Observações atuais
South Sudan

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

The exchange rate on the parallel market stands around 250 SSP/USD, a depreciation from late last year but appreciation from early 2018.

Yemen

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

In mid-February, Hadi and Houthi representatives agreed to a first phase of redeployment of forces from areas near the major Red Sea ports, which could begin in late February.

Nigeria

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

According to the DTM, between March 18 and 31, nearly 10 000 movements were recorded, with a majority of which were arrivals in Borno and Adamawa states. 

Afghanistan

Drought negatively affected 2017/2018 rainfed wheat yields and pastoral conditions. Furthermore, prolonged conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods and lead to displacement.  

In Kunar and Nangarhar provinces, conflict between non-state actors in late March displaced over 21,000 people and led to the loss of life. 

Other Areas of Concern

País ou região Motivo de preocupação Observações atuais
DRC

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities.

The number of confirmed Ebola cases and deaths in North Kivu is rising, which in combination with conflict is limiting household access to livelihoods and markets. 

Madagascar

Consecutive years of below-average rainfall in the South have reduced agricultural production and household incomes.

The 2018/19 rainy season has been average to above-average in the south, but limited seed availability may lead to another year of below-average crop production.   

Horn of Africa

The 2018 Deyr/short rains season was well below average across much of the region. Although the 2018 Gu/Genna/long rains season was one of the wettest on record, many pastoralists are still recovering from the effects of the 2016/2017 drought.

Siginificantly below-average rainfall since March is contributing to rapid deterioration in pasture and water availability as well as poor cropping conditions across the Horn. 

Southern Africa

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Preliminary analysis suggests cumulative rainfall totals in southwestern and central areas of the region are the lowest on record.  

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Peak needs 2018

FEWS NET Data Center link

Food security outlook story map

Os nossos Parceiros

A Rede de Sistemas de AlertaPrecoce de Fome é líder na provisão de alertas precoces e análises relativas à insegurança alimentar. Estabelecida em 1985 com o fim de auxiliar os responsáveis pela tomada de decisões a elaborar planos para crises humanitárias, a FEWS NET provê análises baseadas em evidências em cerca de 35 países. Entre os membros implementadores refere-se a NASA , NOAA, USDA e o USGS, assim como a Chemonics International Inc. e a Kimetrica. Leia mais sobre o nosso trabalho.

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